A Tale of Two Markets: A Dickensian Take on the Coming Years in Defense Tech

It’s a strange time for the defense technology sector. Despite the headlines of record capital, valuations, and defense budgets, there is a growing unease among investors and leadership teams. Production contracts remain as elusive as ever, and a generation of startups is struggling to extend their runways across the valley of death, risking not just those businesses but capital flight from the broader sector. There is little point in trying to decide which one of these diverging narratives is real, or if a defense technology market collapse is imminent. To understand what’s really